The UK restaurant sector is forecast to grow at a modest 1% CAGR over the next three years, reaching a value of £19.6bn in 2028, Lumina Intelligence has revealed in its new UK Restaurant Market Report.
This year, the market is expected to grow by 0.8%, reaching £19bn in value by the year end. But while growth has been achieved versus 2024, the figure remains 1.8% below the value of the market in 2019.
The current growth in the market is being driven by modest price inflation rather than volume recovery, as fragile consumer confidence, rising staff costs and business-rate cuts temper gains, according to Lumina.
With its higher average spend, the channel also continues to lag behind the wider eating-out market which has seen growth of 2.6%, signalling a period of stabilisation rather than largescale expansion.
Outlet decline is slowing, with a net loss of five restaurants per week in 2025, bringing the total number of restaurant sites to 26,130 – with independents making up 83% of the total outlet numbers.
Branded operators are expanding selectively via franchising and regional clustering, with legacy casual-dining chains continuing to rationalise mature estates, the insight specialist noted.
In terms of which kind of operators are driving growth, fast food brands continue to outperform and are forecast to grow their value by 6.4% (CAGR), between 2022 and 2025, to £17.7bn, versus service-led restaurants at +2.1%.
Meanwhile, branded and fine-dining operators are consolidating and innovating to build resilience, with value share rising to 41.6% as independents face sustained margin erosion.
Branded turnover is forecast +1.8% in 2025F despite -2.4% outlet contraction, underpinned by estate optimisation, loyalty integration and tech-driven efficiency.
To find out more about the report, please contact Linda Haden, insight lead at Lumina Intelligence at linda.haden@wrbm.com
